MERIDIAN prediction record

MERIDIAN · Prediction record

// Prediction record

MERIDIAN publishes every call with the result that would prove it wrong.

Each MERIDIAN Assessment makes three dated calls, one on each of the forces it examines: the driver, the constraint and the obstacle. Each call states the published result that would show it does not hold, and one warning signal that would show it weakening first. MERIDIAN marks every call in public on the stated dates, including any call that fails. A call is never edited once it is logged.

calls in the register, three from each of Assessments 001 and 002.

calls marked so far, since the first check-in falls on 1 April 2027.

public check-ins: 1 April 2027, 1 October 2027 and the final review on 31 December 2027.

The register opens on 16 October 2026, the day both Assessments are released.

MERIDIAN · Assessment 001 · Data centres

// Assessment 001 · ASEAN Data Centre Infrastructure

Three calls test whether data-centre capital keeps flowing, grids keep delivery behind the pipeline and more governments restrict approvals.

P-001DriverOpens 16 Oct 2026

Capital will keep flowing into data centres across Southeast Asia through 2027.

Scored on: Capacity under construction in Southeast Asia, which must stay above 2,000 MW at every half-yearly reading to 31 December 2027.
The call fails if: Any half-yearly reading of capacity under construction across Southeast Asia before 31 December 2027 falls below 2,000 MW.
Warning signal: The combined capital spending of Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon falls below the same quarter twelve months before in two consecutive quarters.
Checked against: Cushman & Wakefield Asia Pacific Data Centre Update (half-yearly); the quarterly results of Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.

Check-ins 1 Apr 2027 · 1 Oct 2027Final review 31 Dec 2027

P-002ConstraintOpens 16 Oct 2026

Grid connections will keep the data-centre pipeline in Southeast Asia running ahead of delivery through 2027.

Scored on: Capacity under construction, which must stay above half of Southeast Asia’s live capacity at every reading to 31 December 2027.
The call fails if: Any half-yearly reading before 31 December 2027 shows capacity under construction in Southeast Asia below half of Southeast Asia’s live capacity, measured by the same method as computation C-12 in the report.
Warning signal: The share of capacity under construction against live capacity falls in two consecutive half-yearly readings. The share stood at 77% in the first half of 2026, against 22% for the world.
Checked against: Cushman & Wakefield; Knight Frank; Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN); BMI; BloombergNEF; JLL.

Check-ins 1 Apr 2027 · 1 Oct 2027Final review 31 Dec 2027

P-003ObstacleOpens 16 Oct 2026

Grid strain and a forecast drought will lead at least one more ASEAN government to restrict data-centre approvals before the end of 2027.

Scored on: A published power or water condition on data-centre approvals from an ASEAN government other than Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand before 31 December 2027.
The call fails if: The count of ASEAN governments that attach power or water conditions to data-centre approvals remains at three on 31 December 2027.
Warning signal: The number of ASEAN power utilities or grid operators reporting grid strain from data-centre load, or a supply red alert, falls to zero in the twelve months before a check date. The count stood at two in the year to September 2026.
Checked against: Government and regulator notices across the eleven ASEAN markets; the notices of power utilities and grid operators.

Check-ins 1 Apr 2027 · 1 Oct 2027Final review 31 Dec 2027

Open Assessment 001 →

MERIDIAN · Assessment 002 · Semiconductors

// Assessment 002 · ASEAN Semiconductor Supply Chain

Three calls test whether microchip exports keep rising, Southeast Asia’s share of the value shrinks and United States tariffs reach Southeast Asian plants.

P-004DriverOpens 16 Oct 2026

AI demand will keep Southeast Asia’s microchip exports on a rising path through 2027.

Scored on: The combined microchip and semiconductor-device exports of Malaysia and the Philippines, which must be higher in 2027 than in 2026.
The call fails if: The combined 2027 microchip and semiconductor-device exports of Malaysia and the Philippines, each on the same published measure, fall below the combined 2026 exports.
Warning signal: The combined year-to-date microchip and electronics exports of Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines for 2027 fall below the same months of 2026 in two consecutive monthly releases.
Checked against: Department of Statistics Malaysia; Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation (SEIPI); Vietnam’s official trade statistics.

Check-ins 1 Apr 2027 · 1 Oct 2027Final review 31 Dec 2027

P-005ConstraintOpens 16 Oct 2026

Southeast Asia will capture a shrinking share of the value of the microchip boom to 2027, since the back end of the chain earns little from the rise in memory prices.

Scored on: The combined microchip exports of Malaysia and the Philippines, which must grow less than half as fast as world microchip sales between 2025 and 2027.
The call fails if: The combined microchip exports of Malaysia and the Philippines rise between 2025 and 2027 by at least half the percentage rise in world microchip sales, measured on the Semiconductor Industry Association’s reported 2027 world sales.
Warning signal: A World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecast puts 2027 world microchip sales below US$1.51 trillion, the 2026 forecast level. The Spring 2026 forecast stood at about US$1.9 trillion.
Checked against: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics; Semiconductor Industry Association; Department of Statistics Malaysia; SEIPI.

Check-ins 1 Apr 2027 · 1 Oct 2027Final review 31 Dec 2027

P-006ObstacleOpens 16 Oct 2026

United States microchip tariffs will reach Southeast Asian plants before the end of 2027 and narrow Southeast Asia’s cost advantage over China for American buyers.

Scored on: A Federal Register notice that applies second-phase microchip tariffs to microchips made in any ASEAN market before 31 December 2027.
The call fails if: No notice in the United States Federal Register that applies second-phase Section 232 tariffs to microchips made in any ASEAN market takes effect before 31 December 2027.
Warning signal: A published second-phase schedule exempts microchips made in ASEAN markets or sets a zero rate for them. The second phase was confirmed on 2 and 3 September 2026, with rates, scope and timing unpublished.
Checked against: United States Department of Commerce; the Federal Register.

Check-ins 1 Apr 2027 · 1 Oct 2027Final review 31 Dec 2027

Open Assessment 002 →

MERIDIAN · How calls are marked

// How calls are marked

MERIDIAN writes each result beside the call on the check-in date and never edits the call itself.

On each check-in date, MERIDIAN reads the named sources, records the result beside the call and publishes it on this page, whichever way it went. No call carries a probability, because no published reference class exists from which a probability could be computed. The full method is published on the method page.